North Central Washington

Wildfires 2014

Toward Better Smoke Management in Wildfires: 2014

This page is here to encourage agencies to better help people escape smoke from wildfires, so they can make a reasonable decision of whether and where to evacuate. Unfortunately, the agency information on the web is mostly regional and it doesn't compare information equally between other areas, making it hard to decide where to go for short-term evacuations. In other words, what is needed is a real-time indication of where the air is clear, like the following maps.

(Click thumbnail to show full extent as PDF)

August 9	August 8

The above maps show that technology exists that could inform people where to go to escape smoke but it lacks real-time implementation. The maps show where smoke-free areas are in relation to the 2014 Carlton Complex fires. The images are from the MODIS satellite with an overlay of active fires. Unfortunately MODIS images are a day old. For comparison, here are some agency smoke maps based on current information, but they fall short of showing details of where the air is safe:

NOAA Air Quality Guidance Aug 10, 2014 (needs details; color scale only goes to 140 mg/m^3)	EPA Smoke Guidance Aug 10, 2014 (useless for Twisp)

Evacuations can cost families thousands of dollars in time and money, a large part of which is due to travel time. Families on a limited budget may not be able to afford to drive four hours to reach clean air, but often there is acceptably clean air within an hour's drive that isn't known about. Smoke is often very local. It might be that all that is needed is to camp out and recharge for a day or two in a local campsite that is out of the way of the smoke. For instance, on August 8, camping out in Mazama for a couple nights would have been a totally do-able break from the smoke in Twisp 40 miles away. But NOOOOO, there wasn't a single website that could inform the public that the air was clear in Mazama. Ultimately, I just drove up there and sure enough the air was clear. Next time, I will just have a friend email me back a picture of what it looks like outside. That is what this website is about - to encourage agencies to better address needs of communities threatened with unhealthy air.

Yoo-hoo, Forest Service, DNR, NOAA, NASA, DOE, EPA ... is a live satellite feed really too much to ask? Honestly, why is it that I can do a better job of smoke prediction with a call to a friend in Mazama than all you guys can with all the millions of dollars spent on weather modeling? Bottom line - for temporary evacuations, the best detailed smoke information is still what you can get with a phone call, or a webcam. OK End of rant, here are some resources on smoke avoidance.

Links

(Return to wildfire information at okanogan1.com)

Fire Maps Wildland fire map by gmap4 MODIS fire and smoke satellite images (1-day lag period) Washington MODIS satellite images (1-day lag period) GEOMAC fire perimeters for Carlton complex map (click layers to download KML for active fire perimeters) Fire Information NW Interagency Coordination Center for large fires (click on Morning Briefing for latest updates) Inciweb for Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest Weather and Smoke Modeling MODIS Fire and Wind Map WA Dept Ecology Smoke Weather (dots for Winthrop, Twisp, Okanogan and Chelan, but not Mazama) NOAA Air quality forecast guidance for North America (regional, no details) Air quality forecast guidance for Pacific NW (click Surface Smoke, then click Loop) Air quality current and predicted (only gives information at stations, but Twisp and Winthrop both included) Guidelines for roughly determining air quality from visibility. EPA Air quality (click on Current AQI for current smoke map). Maps are targeted for metropolitan areas, and give misleading information for rural areas. Fire Weather Forecasts for NC Washington National Weather Service Observations National Weather Service Observations for NC Washington Web Cams methownet Valley Webcams Sun Mountain Webcam Loup Loup Pass Webcam Community Fire Planning After The Fire Toolkit Fire Plan Summary (by Methow Community Fire Plan Coordinating Group, 3.1MB pdf) Fuel reduction priorities (old, but still useful summary by G. Wooten)